Wednesday, March 05, 2008

This train don't stop...

Apologies in advance to Elton John and Bernie Taupin.

The Hill and Bill for DC campaign train, its steam and whistles lacking oxygen and coal, has been handed a reprieve. Destined, after twelve successive losses, for the political Powerhouse Museum, it found coal enough and oxygen enough to survive for another round.

Hillary has triumphantly addressed supporters stating that "no candidate in recent history — Democratic or Republican — has won the White House without winning the Ohio primary".

This might well be true and she has, in fact, won Ohio well - something she was always expected to do. The problem is that this Democratic nominating season is all about history: either a black candidate or a female will take their party's nomination. History, I'm afraid, has no precedent and therefore Hillary's comforting embrace of it is somewhat irrelevant.

As well, the race in Texas, which will likely fall her way, is desperately close. At this writing (17:20 Thursday March 5) the primaries in the state are in her favour 50.8% to 47.4%; the caucuses are against her 53.9% to 46%. Whatever Hillary takes out of this Tuesday it will not be enough to overhaul Obama's delegate lead. She will still likely trail in delegate numbers. The mathematics of the remaining delegates though will no longer be an impossibility. this will have been the case had she lost either of today's large states by any significant margin.

And so the lot rolls on. On to the next big showdown: Pennsylvania. This will be the nutcracker for the nomination. If Obama wins here Hillary's campaign train is off to the Powerhouse Museum. Either way, given the fact that Hillary has edged Texas and not won it well (as polls had her doing so even a month ago), the all important superdelegates - the party honchos - are leaning to Obama. Any further Clinton losses will see that lean become slide across the lounge.

Any further Clinton losses and - a fortiori - a loss in Pennsylvania will see the Hillary express largely derailed. As far as the White House is concerned - to pinch Bernie Taupin's line - the Clinton "train don't stop there anymore".

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Anonymous Jacob said...

"History, I'm afraid, has no precedent and therefore Hillary's comforting embrace of it is somewhat irrelevant."

Very nicely put.

Perhaps the two could grease history's rails by eventually forming an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket in the washup.

'Course, whoever wins the Dem nomination, in whatever recombination, will have a formidable opponent in McCain -- old, white, male, decorated, etc.

Oh, and thanks for this excellent post, Father Park, much needed and appreciated at a time when I'm hard-pressed to even think about posting anything. Things are berserk in my little orbit at the moment.

5/3/08 9:57 PM  
Blogger Father Park said...

I've owed something better than this for a bit. Ran it off whilst following the results on line.

It will be very interesting to see how they deal with each other at the Convention in August. Neither will acquiesce to "vice". Both will muster big numbers of pledged delegates. The dealing will resemble last century: the early half of that century. The deals will be for places in "cabinet", et al.

All, of course, if the "superdelegates" don't start lining up with Obama. I, personally, think they've begun that process.

Hillary should have had it in the bag by now.

6/3/08 12:05 AM  
Blogger Kathy Farrelly said...

Let's hope this is finally the end for Hill and Bill!

6/3/08 9:35 PM  
Anonymous Jacob said...

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you, Kath.

6/3/08 10:12 PM  
Blogger Caz said...

Obama looked "incredulous" when asked about a joint ticket with Hill - him as the V.P.

Not going to happen.

Not a snowflake's hope in hell.

Obama has more pledged delegates, that' sort of over. The race will hang on the super delegates, of which Obama already has far more - they all abandoned Hill pretty early on, yonks ago.

Don't see how she can pull it off, unless the Dem's try out a totally undemocratic system of voting come the Convention.

9/3/08 5:29 PM  

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