Sunday, November 25, 2007

Howard's end....

The AEC figures at the close of counting last night.

Nick Minchin claimed that Howard may well be saved by postal votes. His theory is that McKew needed to be a good percentage point above the swing to carry the seat against the postal votes. By night's end he was intimating 6% - perhaps as a result of the firming swing to the ALP. At close of counting McKew appaers on track at 1.87% above the required 4.1% to win the seat

House of Representatives Division First Preferences:

Two Candidate Preferred Polling Places Returned: 47 of 48; Turnout: 77.17%

Candidate Party Votes This Election (%) Last Election (%) Swing (%)

HOWARD, John WinstonLiberal 34,472 48.16 54.13 -5.97

McKEW, Maxine Labor 37,101 51.84 45.87 +5.97


Given that the swing required was 4.1%, there would need to be a goodly percentage of the electorate recording postal votes for Nick Minichin's scenario to get up.

Does Howard want to cling on by a handfull of preferences simply to resign his seat and bring about a by election? I sensed, when he mentioned the likely loss of his seat in his well made concession speech, something like relief. He may prefer (to borrow his metaphor), as commanding general, to lose his seat in "electoral battle" with those who also lost their seats on the night.

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4 Comments:

Blogger Jacob A. Stam said...

Hmmm, I guess it's entirely possible there could be as many as 3,000 Bennelong electors on overseas holidays or otherwise indisposed.

The other possibility is that we're going through these formalities as a sop to a very humiliated man.

By the way ... just to confirm my own possibly faulty recollection ... did anyone else notice that Peter Costello in his speech last night to his supporters didn't mention Mr Howard? Not even once?

25/11/07 12:09 PM  
Blogger Father Park said...

Not once. Not even an allusion nor syllable. Never.

No axe to grind hmm?

Let the recriminations begin. Piers is busy blaming away the election on the misappropriation of union memeber's funds through anti-WorkChoices advertising: "12 months and counting, untold millions of members' funds...".

Nary a mention of the hubris and selfishness of the departing member for Bennelong which contributed hugely. Ignore the obvious - particularly when it is uncomfortable.

Nice to see that Michelle Grattan, in today's Sunday Herald, mirrors my "Mutiny on the Beas" bit below aways. Must pen some observations after several black beers and a bottle of red again one day!

Haven't checked CC yet. Harry must be suffering appoplexy: the world has gone crazy and the hate will flower.

Leftie, bigotted, lying racists are in power.

When is Jay White mincing down Martin Place with pasty white bum in full, unobstructed view?

D'you think we should sell tickets and raise money for charity?

25/11/07 7:45 PM  
Anonymous Kathy said...

Agreed Mike, Howard was a silly old selfish fool..And he has accepted responsibility for the parties demise. Rightly so too !

I am however, not too confident in the abilities of his successor either.
Seems like not much will change in the near future anyway, with labor setting long term targets.
And then there is the problem of the senate.
And after July, if the Greens have the balance...well.. they'll (labor) still be fucked I reckon.
The Greens are a very disagreeable lot!

I see Rudd as more of a diplomat..

Sitting around drinking copious cups of tea, talking about issues but never really doing anything.

Time will tell..

25/11/07 8:41 PM  
Blogger Jacob A. Stam said...

You'll find Jay has been active at CC when you do visit there, Father Park. The poor man's almost beside himself with profound confusion. How could, he seems to be saying, the Australian people have got it so wrong?

Meanwhile Harry's up to his limit of ten over at WD, baiting lefties. Howard's gone, he asks, so why don't they just move on?

On a slow wind-down day, it's all somewhat moderately amusing.

25/11/07 9:48 PM  

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